Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 13

FC Fredericia–FC Midtjylland

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Monjasa Park, Fredericia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'FC MidtjyllandFranculino Djú (assist: D. Castillo)
34'FC MidtjyllandCho Gue-Sung (assist: D. Castillo)
50'FC MidtjyllandM. Gogorza
53'FC MidtjyllandJunior Brumado (assist: O. Diao)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Fredericia		FC Midtjylland
10	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	11
5	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	5
5	Offsides	3
33%	Possession	67%
271	Passes	557
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Fredericia 1.35 · FC Midtjylland 2.13. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots FC Fredericia 10 · FC Midtjylland 20; on target 5 and 11.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Funder→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “FC Fredericia to win” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for FC Fredericia, 2.13 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 559 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Fredericia to win22.5%

Draw22.3%

FC Midtjylland to win55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Fredericia lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time36.8%

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time45.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Fredericia ahead or level54.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or FC Midtjylland ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 559 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Fredericia: at least 10Actual: 6
FC Midtjylland: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 7
FC Midtjylland: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.35

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score2.13

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.4%1–19.8%1–37.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.