Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 12

Sonderjyske–FC Fredericia

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haderslev Fodbold Stadion, Hadeslev

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'SonderjyskeK. M. Ingason (assist: M. Agger)
43'SonderjyskeA. Lyng (assist: T. Sommer)
68'SonderjyskeR. Vinderslev

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sonderjyske		FC Fredericia
21	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	0
15	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	9
0	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
457	Passes	471
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sonderjyske 1.75 · FC Fredericia 1.54. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sonderjyske 21 · FC Fredericia 10; on target 8 and 0.

Referee

J. Kehlet→

3.71

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Sonderjyske to win”. Second comes “FC Fredericia to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Sonderjyske, 1.54 for FC Fredericia.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 557 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sonderjyske to win42.1%

Draw24.9%

FC Fredericia to win33.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sonderjyske lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time39.7%

FC Fredericia lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sonderjyske ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or FC Fredericia ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 557 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sonderjyske: at least 9Actual: 8
FC Fredericia: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Sonderjyske: at least 4Actual: 5
FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.75

Attack: Sonderjyske score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.54

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–19.6%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.