Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 11

Randers FC–Viborg

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Randers FCN. Dyhr (assist: M. Touré)
15'Randers FCM. Touré (assist: Mike Themsen)
26'ViborgT. Freriks (assist: Charly Nouck)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Viborg
14	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	8
8	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
510	Passes	553
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.83 · Viborg 1.33. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Randers FC 14 · Viborg 16; on target 8 and 9.

Referee

M. Tykgaard→

3.41

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “Viborg to win” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Randers FC, 1.33 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 547 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win49.0%

Draw24.6%

Viborg to win26.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Randers FC win or draw73.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Viborg win51.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Randers FC lead at half-time31.0%

Level at half-time37.6%

Viborg lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead69.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 547 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 11Actual: 9
Viborg: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 5
Viborg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,728 of 2,752 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.83

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score1.33

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.4%1–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 547 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 86 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.