Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 10

FC Nordsjaelland–Aarhus

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'FC NordsjaellandA. Lind (assist: N. Rojkjaer)
81'AarhusF. Beijmo
83'AarhusM. Solbakken

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Aarhus
8	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	1
2	Offsides	5
52%	Possession	48%
590	Passes	549
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.65 · Aarhus 1.51. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 8 · Aarhus 11; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

M. Kristoffersen→

3.47

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “Aarhus to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.51 for Aarhus.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 543 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win40.3%

Draw25.5%

Aarhus to win34.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time38.3%

Aarhus lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Aarhus ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 543 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 10Actual: 13
Aarhus: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 4Actual: 3
Aarhus: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.65

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aarhus's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aarhus score1.51

Attack: Aarhus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.