Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 6

Aarhus–Vejle

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AarhusP. Mortensen (assist: G. Links)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		Vejle
17	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
486	Passes	403
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 2.03 · Vejle 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Aarhus 17 · Vejle 8; on target 5 and 1.
Aarhus kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Tykgaard→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.9%: “Aarhus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Aarhus, 1.07 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — Aarhus win or draw).
These values were computed from 520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win59.9%

Draw22.4%

Vejle to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,527 of 6,231 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aarhus win or draw82.3%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or Vejle win40.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aarhus lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time39.2%

Vejle lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aarhus ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 520 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aarhus: at least 9Actual: 12
Vejle: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Aarhus: at least 5Actual: 6
Vejle: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score2.03

Attack: Aarhus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.07

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–111.0%2–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 520 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 49 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.