Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Casa Pia–Rio Ave

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Casa PiaGaizka Larrazabal (assist: Dailon Livramento)
52'Rio AveJalen Blesa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Rio Ave
20	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
278	Passes	432
204	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.30 · Rio Ave 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Casa Pia 20 · Rio Ave 6; on target 5 and 3.
Rio Ave kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

H. Malheiro→

4.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Casa Pia, 1.01 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,217 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win51.4%

Draw26.5%

Rio Ave to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Casa Pia lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Rio Ave lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1217 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 15Actual: 17
Rio Ave: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 4
Rio Ave: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.30

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score1.19

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–010.8%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.