Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

FC Porto–Santa Clara

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'FC PortoSidney Lima (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Santa Clara
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
394	Passes	348
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.76 · Santa Clara 0.67. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Porto 14 · Santa Clara 11; on target 6 and 0.

Referee

J. Goncalves→

5.30

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.7%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for FC Porto, 0.70 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 91.8% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win74.7%

Draw17.1%

Santa Clara to win8.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Porto win or draw91.8%

12 — any result other than a draw82.9%

X2 — draw or Santa Clara win25.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Porto lead at half-time52.9%

Level at half-time39.5%

Santa Clara lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead47.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 11
Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 8
Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.76

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score0.67

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.6%1–010.5%3–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1215 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 101 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.