Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Rio Ave–Sporting CP

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Rio AveDiogo Bezerra (assist: Tamble)
35'Sporting CPL. Suárez (penalty)
42'Sporting CPGustavo Mancha (own goal)
52'Rio AveF. Petrasso · red card
66'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: O. Diomande)
85'Rio Ave

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Sporting CP
12	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
299	Passes	535
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 0.75 · Sporting CP 2.16. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Rio Ave 12 · Sporting CP 16; on target 3 and 5.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

J. Goncalves→

5.11

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.7%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Rio Ave, 2.86 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win6.9%

Draw13.3%

Sporting CP to win79.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Ryan Guilherme · red card

90'Sporting CPGeovany Tcherno Quenda (assist: M. Araújo)

9	Fouls	7

5	Yellow cards	2

2	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rio Ave win or draw20.3%

12 — any result other than a draw86.7%

X2 — draw or Sporting CP win93.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Rio Ave lead at half-time6.8%

Level at half-time36.5%

Sporting CP lead at half-time56.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level43.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead93.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 12Actual: 9
Sporting CP: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 5
Sporting CP: at least 6Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals73.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.75

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score2.16

Attack: Sporting CP score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.2%0–39.9%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1208 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 134 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.