Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Vitória SC–Casa Pia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'Casa PiaGaizka Larrazabal (assist: João Marques)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Casa Pia
15	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
499	Passes	207
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.77 · Casa Pia 0.86. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Vitória SC 15 · Casa Pia 11; on target 2 and 5.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

L. M. Branco Godinho→

4.57

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.8%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Vitória SC, 0.97 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win54.8%

Draw25.5%

Casa Pia to win19.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time42.8%

Casa Pia lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 11
Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 6
Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.77

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score0.86

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–010.9%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.