Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Tondela–Moreirense

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'TondelaM. Aiko (assist: Pedro Maranhao)
60'TondelaRony Lopes (assist: T. Manso)
90+4'MoreirenseMaracás · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tondela		Moreirense
14	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
365	Passes	538
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tondela 1.38 · Moreirense 1.07. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Tondela 14 · Moreirense 10; on target 3 and 2.
Moreirense kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. Baixinho→

6.14

yellows per match

0.57

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Tondela to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Tondela, 0.98 for Moreirense.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Tondela win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tondela to win49.0%

Draw27.7%

Moreirense to win23.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tondela lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time46.8%

Moreirense lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Tondela ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Moreirense ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tondela: at least 15Actual: 14
Moreirense: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Tondela: at least 4Actual: 1
Moreirense: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tondela score1.38

Attack: Tondela score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Moreirense score1.07

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.7%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.