Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Benfica–SC Braga

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Goals and red cards

46'BenficaRafa Silva
48'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: V. Gomez)
88'SC BragaJean-Baptiste Gorby (assist: Mario Dorgeles)
90'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		SC Braga
24	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
469	Passes	443
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 1.92 · SC Braga 0.93. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Benfica 24 · SC Braga 5; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.74

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Benfica, 0.93 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win60.6%

Draw23.1%

SC Braga to win16.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Benfica win or draw83.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or SC Braga win39.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Benfica lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time39.4%

SC Braga lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 10Actual: 6
SC Braga: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Benfica: at least 5Actual: 8
SC Braga: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score1.92

Attack: Benfica score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score0.93

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1208 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 134 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.