Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

SC Braga–Estoril

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'SC BragaMario Dorgeles (assist: R. Zalazar)
79'EstorilY. Begraoui (assist: Ricard Sánchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Estoril
10	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
478	Passes	481
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.27 · Estoril 0.84. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SC Braga 10 · Estoril 10; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

3.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.4%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for SC Braga, 1.00 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,203 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win60.4%

Draw22.7%

Estoril to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SC Braga lead at half-time63.0%

Level at half-time30.2%

Estoril lead at half-time6.8%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level93.2%

12 — not level at half-time69.8%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead37.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1203 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 11Actual: 15
Estoril: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 5
Estoril: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.27

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

How many goals Estoril score0.84

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–111.0%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.