Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

Casa Pia–Tondela

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'Casa PiaCassiano · red card
68'TondelaBebeto (penalty)
90+11'Casa PiaJ. Livolant · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Tondela
4	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
353	Passes	404
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.33 · Tondela 1.19. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Casa Pia 4 · Tondela 9; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

A. Narciso→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Casa Pia, 1.08 for Tondela.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,202 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win40.8%

Draw29.6%

Tondela to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

22	Fouls	19

8	Yellow cards	3

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Casa Pia lead at half-time34.8%

Level at half-time44.6%

Tondela lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Tondela ahead65.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1202 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 13Actual: 22
Tondela: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 4Actual: 7
Tondela: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.33

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tondela score1.19

Attack: Tondela score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–011.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.