Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Moreirense–Estoril

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 April 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.7% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'MoreirenseAlanzinho (assist: A. Assis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Moreirense		Estoril
11	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
395	Passes	531
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Moreirense 1.41 · Estoril 1.30. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Moreirense 11 · Estoril 4; on target 4 and 1.
Estoril kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Torres→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Estoril to win”. Second comes “Moreirense to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Moreirense, 1.42 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moreirense to win34.4%

Draw27.5%

Estoril to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Moreirense lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time41.9%

Estoril lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Moreirense ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Moreirense: at least 12Actual: 14
Estoril: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 5
Estoril: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Moreirense score1.41

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estoril score1.30

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.3%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.