Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

FC Porto–Tondela

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto

Goals and red cards

48'FC PortoGabri Veiga (assist: Deniz Gül)
65'FC PortoV. Froholdt

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Tondela
22	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	0
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	3
4	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
506	Passes	342
444	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.32 · Tondela 0.49. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Porto 22 · Tondela 5; on target 8 and 3.
FC Porto kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

C. Pereira→

4.14

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.6%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.32 for FC Porto, 0.49 for Tondela.
The highest double chance value is 94.8% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,183 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win79.6%

Draw15.2%

Tondela to win5.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 88 of 227 predictions were correct (38.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Porto win or draw94.8%

12 — any result other than a draw84.8%

X2 — draw or Tondela win20.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Porto lead at half-time59.3%

Level at half-time35.9%

Tondela lead at half-time4.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level95.3%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Tondela ahead40.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1183 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 12
Tondela: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 8
Tondela: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.32

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tondela score0.49

Attack: Tondela score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.9%1–013.3%3–013.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1183 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 28 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.