Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Sporting CP–Benfica

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Goals and red cards

27'BenficaAndreas Schjelderup (penalty)
72'Sporting CPH. Morita (assist: Z. Debast)
90'BenficaRafa Silva (assist: Leandro Barreiro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Benfica
19	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
494	Passes	304
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 1.61 · Benfica 1.05. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sporting CP 19 · Benfica 14; on target 6 and 5.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.76

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Sporting CP, 1.05 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,182 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win49.8%

Draw26.7%

Benfica to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sporting CP lead at half-time40.9%

Level at half-time41.6%

Benfica lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Benfica ahead59.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1182 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 13Actual: 13
Benfica: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 4Actual: 3
Benfica: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score1.61

Attack: Sporting CP score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.61 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Benfica score1.05

Attack: Benfica score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.05 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.5%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.