Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Nacional–Alverca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'NacionalJesús Ramírez (assist: José Gomes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nacional		Alverca
10	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
402	Passes	394
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nacional 1.39 · Alverca 1.27. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Nacional 10 · Alverca 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

M. Nogueira→

3.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Nacional to win”. Second comes “Alverca to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Nacional, 1.24 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,178 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nacional to win43.2%

Draw27.2%

Alverca to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nacional win or draw70.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Alverca win56.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nacional lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time45.4%

Alverca lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Nacional ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1178 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nacional: at least 13Actual: 15
Alverca: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Nacional: at least 4Actual: 4
Alverca: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nacional score1.39

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score1.27

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.0%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1178 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 29 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.