Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

SC Braga–Arouca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

Goals and red cards

66'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: F. Navarro)
82'SC BragaG. Martinez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Arouca
6	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
651	Passes	381
576	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.37 · Arouca 0.73. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SC Braga 6 · Arouca 9; on target 2 and 1.
SC Braga kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

C. Pereira→

4.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.7%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.37 for SC Braga, 0.73 for Arouca.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,173 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win74.7%

Draw16.9%

Arouca to win8.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Braga win or draw91.6%

12 — any result other than a draw83.1%

X2 — draw or Arouca win25.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Braga lead at half-time73.8%

Level at half-time24.3%

Arouca lead at half-time1.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level98.1%

12 — not level at half-time75.7%

X2 — level or Arouca ahead26.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 9
Arouca: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 6
Arouca: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.37

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.37 goals.

How many goals Arouca score0.73

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%3–010.3%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1173 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 129 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.