Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

Santa Clara–Rio Ave

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Rio AveT. Nikitscher (assist: M. Vrousai)
61'Rio AveSidney Lima (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Rio Ave
13	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
399	Passes	339
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.56 · Rio Ave 0.92. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Santa Clara 13 · Rio Ave 4; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

M. Nogueira→

3.43

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Santa Clara, 0.85 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,170 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win54.3%

Draw26.9%

Rio Ave to win18.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Rio Ave lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1170 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 15Actual: 18
Rio Ave: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 5Actual: 3
Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.56

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score0.92

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–013.3%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.