Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

FC Porto–Famalicao

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'FC PortoAlberto Baio (assist: T. Moffi)
54'FamalicaoSorriso
90'FC PortoS. Fofana (assist: Martim Fernandes)
90'FamalicaoRodrigo Pinheiro

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Famalicao
8	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
420	Passes	409
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.83 · Famalicao 0.67. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Porto 8 · Famalicao 11; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

S. Guelho→

3.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.9%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for FC Porto, 0.71 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win67.9%

Draw21.1%

Famalicao to win11.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time46.6%

Famalicao lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 15Actual: 20
Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 4
Famalicao: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.83

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score0.67

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–012.8%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.