La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Rayo Vallecano–Getafe

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Rayo VallecanoF. Lejeune (assist: I. Palazon)
80'GetafeD. Dakonam · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Getafe
13	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
59%	Possession	41%
385	Passes	270
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.25 · Getafe 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 13 · Getafe 12; on target 8 and 1.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Víctor García→

4.77

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.92 for Getafe.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win40.2%

Draw31.9%

Getafe to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time47.3%

Getafe lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Getafe ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 13Actual: 12
Getafe: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 4Actual: 7
Getafe: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.25

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Getafe score1.03

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.9%0–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.