Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

Rio Ave–Alverca

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AlvercaFigueiredo (assist: Lincoln)
21'AlvercaSandro Lima (assist: Figueiredo)
59'Rio AveJ. Blesa (assist: N. Abbey)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Alverca
18	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
437	Passes	404
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.35 · Alverca 1.31. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Rio Ave 18 · Alverca 14; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

4.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Alverca to win”. Second comes “Rio Ave to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Rio Ave, 1.27 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,163 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win34.2%

Draw29.1%

Alverca to win36.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Rio Ave lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time44.7%

Alverca lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1163 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 7
Alverca: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 8
Alverca: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.35

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score1.31

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.