Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

Sporting CP–Santa Clara

4–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Santa ClaraGustavo Klismahn (assist: Fernando)
22'Sporting CPPedro Gonçalves (penalty)
39'Sporting CPDaniel Bragança (assist: Rafael Ferreira Nel)
42'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: H. Morita)
89'Santa ClaraGonçalo Paciência (assist: Brenner)
90'Sporting CPRafael Ferreira Nel

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Santa Clara
22	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
547	Passes	219
500	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.09 · Santa Clara 0.55. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Sporting CP 22 · Santa Clara 7; on target 8 and 4.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

A. Narciso→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.0%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Sporting CP, 0.69 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win71.0%

Draw19.4%

Santa Clara to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Sporting CP lead at half-time62.3%

Level at half-time33.7%

Santa Clara lead at half-time4.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level96.0%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead37.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 12Actual: 12
Santa Clara: at least 14Actual: 22

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 5Actual: 9
Santa Clara: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.09

Attack: Sporting CP score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score0.55

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.0%1–012.1%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.