Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

Vitória SC–Tondela

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Vitória SCO. Camara (assist: Gonçalo Nogueira)
18'Vitória SCM. Nogueira (assist: O. Camara)
51'Vitória SCSamu (penalty)
55'Vitória SCGustavo Silva
65'Vitória SCJoão Mendes (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Tondela
12	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
390	Passes	369
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.54 · Tondela 1.01. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Vitória SC 12 · Tondela 3; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

C. Macedo→

2.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Vitória SC, 0.97 for Tondela.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,160 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win50.9%

Draw27.1%

Tondela to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time44.8%

Tondela lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Tondela ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1160 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 12Actual: 14
Tondela: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 3
Tondela: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.54

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tondela score1.01

Attack: Tondela score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.6%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.