Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

GIL Vicente–AVS

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'GIL VicenteG. Varela (assist: L. Esteves)
34'GIL VicenteMurilo
80'GIL VicenteG. Varela

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		AVS
16	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
482	Passes	334
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.93 · AVS 0.68. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 16 · AVS 11; on target 6 and 3.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

L. Filipe→

4.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for GIL Vicente, 0.70 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,159 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win69.1%

Draw20.4%

AVS to win10.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time59.1%

Level at half-time35.7%

AVS lead at half-time5.1%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level94.9%

12 — not level at half-time64.3%

X2 — level or AVS ahead40.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1159 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 11Actual: 8
AVS: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 3
AVS: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.93

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score0.68

Attack: AVS score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.9%1–012.5%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.