Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 27

Santa Clara–GIL Vicente

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

Goals and red cards

90'Santa ClaraVinícius Lopes (assist: J. Tavares)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		GIL Vicente
7	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	0
1	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
366	Passes	308
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.19 · GIL Vicente 1.10. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Santa Clara 7 · GIL Vicente 8; on target 2 and 0.

Referee

C. Pereira→

4.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “GIL Vicente to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Santa Clara, 1.10 for GIL Vicente.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,153 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win37.2%

Draw30.4%

GIL Vicente to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time45.3%

GIL Vicente lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or GIL Vicente ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1153 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 15Actual: 15
GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 6
GIL Vicente: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.19

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.10

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.2%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.