Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

AVS–Santa Clara

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'AVSPaulo Vitor · red card
68'Santa ClaraGabriel Silva

Match statistics

Match statistics
AVS		Santa Clara
10	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
311	Passes	365
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AVS 0.96 · Santa Clara 1.42. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots AVS 10 · Santa Clara 12; on target 2 and 3.
Santa Clara kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

G. Correia→

5.71

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for AVS, 1.46 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (X2 — draw or Santa Clara win).
These values were computed from 1,146 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AVS to win20.6%

Draw28.4%

Santa Clara to win51.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AVS lead at half-time15.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Santa Clara lead at half-time40.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AVS ahead or level59.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead84.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1146 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AVS: at least 13Actual: 16
Santa Clara: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

AVS: at least 3Actual: 4
Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AVS score0.96

Attack: AVS score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score1.42

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–113.8%0–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.