La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Real Betis–Valladolid

5–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 April 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Real BetisJesús Rodriguez
41'ValladolidChuky San José (assist: Raul Moro)
64'Real BetisC. Hernández (assist: Marc Bartra)
66'Real BetisIsco (assist: A. Ruibal)
84'Real BetisR. Perraud (assist: C. Hernández)
90'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: R. Perraud)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Valladolid
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
69%	Possession	31%
641	Passes	276
564	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 2.32 · Valladolid 0.65. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Real Betis 16 · Valladolid 10; on target 6 and 5.
Real Betis kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Francisco Hernández→

5.24

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.1%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.87 for Real Betis, 0.68 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 95.0% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,087 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win83.1%

Draw11.9%

Valladolid to win5.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 270 of 320 predictions were correct (84.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Betis lead at half-time65.8%

Level at half-time30.2%

Valladolid lead at half-time4.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level96.0%

12 — not level at half-time69.8%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead34.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1087 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 11Actual: 7
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Real Betis: at least 5Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score2.32

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score0.65

Attack: Valladolid score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%3–011.8%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.