Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

GIL Vicente–Alverca

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'GIL VicenteA. Moreira (assist: L. Esteves)
52'AlvercaSandro Lima (assist: Chiquinho)
71'GIL VicenteA. Moreira (assist: Santi García)
90'AlvercaKaiky Naves (assist: Lincoln)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Alverca
10	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
419	Passes	389
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.64 · Alverca 0.95. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots GIL Vicente 10 · Alverca 17; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

S. Guelho→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for GIL Vicente, 0.84 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win55.8%

Draw26.3%

Alverca to win17.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time45.7%

Level at half-time41.2%

Alverca lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead54.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 15
Alverca: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 3
Alverca: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.64

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score0.95

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–013.2%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.