Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

Vitória SC–Famalicao

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'FamalicaoJ. De Haas (assist: Sorriso)
23'Vitória SCSamu (assist: Noah Saviolo)
47'FamalicaoSorriso

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Famalicao
12	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	11
0	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
361	Passes	457
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.32 · Famalicao 1.18. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Vitória SC 12 · Famalicao 13; on target 6 and 3.
Famalicao kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

H. Carvalho→

4.83

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “Famalicao to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Vitória SC, 1.21 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win38.2%

Draw28.9%

Famalicao to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Vitória SC lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Famalicao lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 15Actual: 22
Famalicao: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 3
Famalicao: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.32

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.18

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.6%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.