Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Tondela–Rio Ave

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 9 March 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'Rio AveJ. Blesa (assist: D. Špikić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tondela		Rio Ave
6	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
405	Passes	460
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tondela 1.66 · Rio Ave 1.00. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Tondela 6 · Rio Ave 9; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

H. Malheiro→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Tondela to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Tondela, 1.07 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (1X — Tondela win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,142 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tondela to win45.1%

Draw28.3%

Rio Ave to win26.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tondela lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time44.6%

Rio Ave lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Tondela ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1142 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tondela: at least 14Actual: 15
Rio Ave: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Tondela: at least 5Actual: 3
Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tondela score1.66

Attack: Tondela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score1.00

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.9%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.