Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Moreirense–Nacional

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'MoreirenseLuís Semedo (assist: Travassos)
67'NacionalMiguel Baeza (assist: A. Nunez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Moreirense		Nacional
7	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
381	Passes	435
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Moreirense 1.41 · Nacional 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Moreirense 7 · Nacional 20; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

M. Torres→

1.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Moreirense to win”. Second comes “Nacional to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Moreirense, 1.16 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moreirense to win38.1%

Draw29.5%

Nacional to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Moreirense lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time47.1%

Nacional lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Moreirense ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.9%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Moreirense: at least 12Actual: 13
Nacional: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 4
Nacional: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Moreirense score1.41

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score1.16

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.3%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.