Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 24

Vitória SC–Alverca

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Vitória SCSamu (assist: A. Ndoye)
65'AlvercaFigueiredo (assist: Chiquinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Alverca
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
0	Corners	11
4	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
445	Passes	390
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.60 · Alverca 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Vitória SC 15 · Alverca 11; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

L. Filipe→

5.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Vitória SC, 0.91 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,129 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win54.3%

Draw26.2%

Alverca to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time41.4%

Alverca lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1129 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 16
Alverca: at least 13Actual: 5

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5
Alverca: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.60

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score1.08

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–012.1%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.