Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 23

FC Porto–Rio Ave

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'FC PortoV. Froholdt (assist: O. Pietuszewski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Rio Ave
16	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
471	Passes	398
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.44 · Rio Ave 0.47. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Porto 16 · Rio Ave 6; on target 3 and 1.
FC Porto kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Silva→

6.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.6%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.76 for FC Porto, 0.54 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win84.6%

Draw11.4%

Rio Ave to win3.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time52.4%

Level at half-time38.6%

Rio Ave lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead47.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 14Actual: 14
Rio Ave: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

FC Porto: at least 6Actual: 10
Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.44

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.44 goals.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.47

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.6%3–013.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.