Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 23

Arouca–Nacional

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'AroucaA. Trezza (assist: Lee Hyun-Ju)
51'NacionalC. Labidi · red card
67'AroucaLee Hyun-Ju
72'AroucaD. Nandín (assist: Pablo Gozálbez)
83'AroucaLee Hyun-Ju · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Nacional
10	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
6	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
450	Passes	284
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.38 · Nacional 1.38. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Arouca 10 · Nacional 15; on target 7 and 5.
Arouca kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

L. Filipe→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Arouca to win”. Second comes “Nacional to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Arouca, 1.16 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win43.5%

Draw27.8%

Nacional to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arouca lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time41.7%

Nacional lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1117 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 12Actual: 13
Nacional: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 4
Nacional: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.38

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score1.38

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.9%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.