Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Rio Ave–Moreirense

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 16 February 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'MoreirenseRodrigo Alonso (assist: K. Bondoso)
42'Rio AveJ. Blesa (assist: A. Ntoi)
57'MoreirenseM. Stjepanovic (assist: Travassos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Moreirense
18	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
539	Passes	372
452	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.28 · Moreirense 1.30. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Rio Ave 18 · Moreirense 6; on target 6 and 3.
Rio Ave kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. Baixinho→

6.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Moreirense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Rio Ave, 1.35 for Moreirense.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Moreirense win).
These values were computed from 1,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win27.9%

Draw29.2%

Moreirense to win42.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	24

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Rio Ave lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

Moreirense lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Moreirense ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 17
Moreirense: at least 13Actual: 24

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 7
Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.28

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Moreirense score1.30

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–111.4%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.