Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

GIL Vicente–SC Braga

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

Goals and red cards

21'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: V. Gomez)
65'GIL VicenteG. Varela (assist: Santi García)
76'GIL VicenteSanti García (assist: Murilo de Souza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		SC Braga
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
412	Passes	414
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.17 · SC Braga 1.42. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots GIL Vicente 15 · SC Braga 11; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

C. Pereira→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “GIL Vicente to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for GIL Vicente, 1.42 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win29.7%

Draw28.2%

SC Braga to win42.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

GIL Vicente lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time41.6%

SC Braga lead at half-time33.0%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level67.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 11Actual: 7
SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 3Actual: 5
SC Braga: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.17

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.42

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–19.8%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.