Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Vitória SC–Estrela

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'EstrelaPaulo Moreira (assist: A. Marcus)
64'Vitória SCThiago Balieiro
68'Vitória SCDiogo Sousa (assist: João Mendes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Estrela
20	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
429	Passes	383
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.69 · Estrela 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Vitória SC 20 · Estrela 6; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

C. Macedo→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.9%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Vitória SC, 0.77 for Estrela.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win59.9%

Draw24.9%

Estrela to win15.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vitória SC lead at half-time42.2%

Level at half-time42.1%

Estrela lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Estrela ahead57.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1110 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 13
Estrela: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 9
Estrela: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.69

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estrela concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estrela score0.95

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.7%2–012.6%1–112.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.