Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 21

SC Braga–Rio Ave

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'SC BragaF. Grillitsch (assist: Pau Víctor)
73'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: F. Grillitsch)
90'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: J. Moutinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Rio Ave
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
686	Passes	399
627	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.46 · Rio Ave 0.65. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SC Braga 15 · Rio Ave 7; on target 7 and 2.
SC Braga kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Nogueira→

3.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.0%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.68 for SC Braga, 0.62 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 94.9% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,103 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win82.0%

Draw12.9%

Rio Ave to win5.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SC Braga lead at half-time62.5%

Level at half-time31.5%

Rio Ave lead at half-time6.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level94.0%

12 — not level at half-time68.5%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead37.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1103 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 14
Rio Ave: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

SC Braga: at least 6Actual: 9
Rio Ave: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.46

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.46 goals.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.65

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.7%3–012.4%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.