Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 20

GIL Vicente–Famalicao

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'FamalicaoMathias De Amorim · red card
44'GIL VicenteMurilo (penalty)
53'GIL VicenteJonathan Buatu (assist: L. Esteves)
80'GIL VicenteG. Varela
84'GIL VicenteG. Varela (assist: Joelson Fernandes)
90'GIL VicenteSanti García

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Famalicao
17	Shots	4
9	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
461	Passes	363
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.22 · Famalicao 1.17. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 17 · Famalicao 4; on target 9 and 0.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

4.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.1%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “Famalicao to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for GIL Vicente, 1.17 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,093 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win35.1%

Draw30.1%

Famalicao to win34.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

Famalicao lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1093 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 13Actual: 19
Famalicao: at least 15Actual: 10

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 3
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.22

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.17

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.4%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.