Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 20

Rio Ave–Arouca

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'AroucaTiago Esgaio (assist: José Fontán)
54'AroucaBarbero
66'AroucaLee Hyun-Ju (assist: B. Kuipers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Arouca
8	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
438	Passes	403
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.51 · Arouca 1.20. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Rio Ave 8 · Arouca 18; on target 0 and 7.

Referee

S. Guelho→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Arouca to win”. Second comes “Rio Ave to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Rio Ave, 1.41 for Arouca.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win30.9%

Draw28.2%

Arouca to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rio Ave lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time40.5%

Arouca lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Arouca ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 11Actual: 11
Arouca: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 5
Arouca: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.51

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arouca score1.20

Attack: Arouca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.6%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.