Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 20

Santa Clara–Estoril

2–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'EstorilY. Begraoui (penalty)
40'EstorilAlejandro Marqués (assist: Pizzi)
52'Santa ClaraDiogo Calila (assist: Serginho)
65'Santa ClaraGabriel Silva (assist: Welinton Torrao)
74'EstorilR. Guitane (assist: Ricard Sánchez)
88'EstorilY. Begraoui

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Estoril
14	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
330	Passes	289
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.48 · Estoril 1.12. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Santa Clara 14 · Estoril 11; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

H. Malheiro→

2.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Santa Clara, 1.05 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win43.2%

Draw29.2%

Estoril to win27.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

7	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Santa Clara lead at half-time34.0%

Level at half-time42.3%

Estoril lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead66.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 14Actual: 16
Estoril: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 6
Estoril: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.48

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estoril score1.12

Attack: Estoril score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.4%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.