Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 20

Vitória SC–Moreirense

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 January 2026 at 20:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'Vitória SCSamu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Moreirense
14	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
360	Passes	481
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.44 · Moreirense 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Vitória SC 14 · Moreirense 10; on target 2 and 5.
Moreirense kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Nobre→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.5%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Vitória SC, 0.91 for Moreirense.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win50.5%

Draw28.0%

Moreirense to win21.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time46.4%

Moreirense lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Moreirense ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 15Actual: 19
Moreirense: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 4Actual: 5
Moreirense: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.44

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Moreirense score1.03

Attack: Moreirense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.9%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.