Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 19

FC Porto–GIL Vicente

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 26 January 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'FC PortoSamu (penalty)
69'GIL VicenteM. Fernández · red card
75'FC PortoMartim Fernandes (assist: Pepê Aquino)
86'FC PortoWilliam (assist: P. Rosario)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		GIL Vicente
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
444	Passes	327
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.74 · GIL Vicente 0.66. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FC Porto 14 · GIL Vicente 11; on target 6 and 5.
FC Porto kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Nobre→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.0%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for FC Porto, 0.62 for GIL Vicente.
The highest double chance value is 90.6% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win70.0%

Draw20.6%

GIL Vicente to win9.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time42.8%

GIL Vicente lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or GIL Vicente ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 14Actual: 13
GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

FC Porto: at least 4Actual: 11
GIL Vicente: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.74

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GIL Vicente score0.66

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.2%1–014.3%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.