Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 19

SC Braga–Alverca

5–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'SC BragaVitor Carvalho
23'SC BragaR. Zalazar (assist: R. Horta)
30'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: R. Zalazar)
45'SC BragaR. Horta (penalty)
79'SC BragaF. Navarro (assist: Pau Víctor)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Alverca
17	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
744	Passes	346
691	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.99 · Alverca 0.90. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots SC Braga 17 · Alverca 3; on target 7 and 0.
SC Braga kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for SC Braga, 0.73 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,087 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win66.5%

Draw21.7%

Alverca to win11.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

SC Braga lead at half-time59.9%

Level at half-time33.5%

Alverca lead at half-time6.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level93.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.5%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead40.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1087 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 9
Alverca: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5
Alverca: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.99

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score0.90

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%1–012.7%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.