Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 19

Famalicao–Tondela

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'FamalicaoMathias De Amorim (assist: S. Elisor)
69'FamalicaoGil Dias
81'FamalicaoPedro Santos

Match statistics

Match statistics
Famalicao		Tondela
9	Shots	2
4	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
496	Passes	299
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Famalicao 1.72 · Tondela 0.98. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Famalicao 9 · Tondela 2; on target 4 and 0.
Famalicao kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

C. Macedo→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Famalicao, 0.82 for Tondela.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Famalicao win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,085 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Famalicao to win60.5%

Draw24.1%

Tondela to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Famalicao lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time45.2%

Tondela lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Famalicao ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Tondela ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1085 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 9
Tondela: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Famalicao: at least 5Actual: 3
Tondela: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Famalicao score1.72

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tondela score0.98

Attack: Tondela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.4%1–112.3%2–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.