Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 18

Rio Ave–Benfica

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Goals and red cards

16'BenficaLeandro Barreiro (assist: Georgiy Sudakov)
25'BenficaA. Ntoi (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Benfica
7	Shots	24
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	11
2	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
346	Passes	602
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 0.74 · Benfica 2.27. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Rio Ave 7 · Benfica 24; on target 1 and 8.
Benfica kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

C. Pereira→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.8%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.74 for Rio Ave, 2.27 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 1,075 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win9.2%

Draw18.0%

Benfica to win72.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rio Ave win or draw27.2%

12 — any result other than a draw82.0%

X2 — draw or Benfica win90.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Rio Ave lead at half-time12.2%

Level at half-time38.0%

Benfica lead at half-time49.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level50.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Benfica ahead87.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1075 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 12
Benfica: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 2Actual: 3
Benfica: at least 6Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.74

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score2.27

Attack: Benfica score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.1%0–110.5%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1075 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 119 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.