Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 18

GIL Vicente–Nacional

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'GIL VicenteMurilo
22'NacionalZé Vitor (assist: Leo Santos)
57'GIL VicenteSanti García

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Nacional
16	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
362	Passes	301
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.57 · Nacional 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots GIL Vicente 16 · Nacional 13; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

M. Nogueira→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for GIL Vicente, 0.86 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,072 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win54.6%

Draw26.6%

Nacional to win18.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

GIL Vicente lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time42.4%

Nacional lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1072 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 7
Nacional: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 7
Nacional: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.57

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nacional concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.99

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–013.0%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.