Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 17

Santa Clara–FC Porto

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

Goals and red cards

50'FC PortoSamu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		FC Porto
12	Shots	8
0	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
322	Passes	428
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 0.79 · FC Porto 1.36. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Santa Clara 12 · FC Porto 8; on target 0 and 5.
FC Porto kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

C. Pereira→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Santa Clara, 1.36 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win20.5%

Draw29.6%

FC Porto to win49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time46.3%

FC Porto lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or FC Porto ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 20
FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 2
FC Porto: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score0.79

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.36

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.36 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–115.2%1–114.4%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.