Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 17

Rio Ave–Casa Pia

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Rio AveAndre Luiz (assist: Clayton)
62'Rio AveB. Aguilera
83'Casa PiaC. Mendes (assist: Miguel Sousa)
86'Rio AveAndre Luiz (assist: Clayton)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Casa Pia
12	Shots	15
8	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
343	Passes	327
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.45 · Casa Pia 1.13. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Rio Ave 12 · Casa Pia 15; on target 8 and 5.

Referee

I. Vasilica→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Rio Ave to win”. Second comes “Casa Pia to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Rio Ave, 1.06 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,066 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win39.1%

Draw30.4%

Casa Pia to win30.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	23

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rio Ave lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time41.0%

Casa Pia lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1066 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 10
Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 23

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 9
Casa Pia: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.45

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score1.13

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.7%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.